Monthly Archives: April 2014

Slow but Steady U.S. Economic Recovery Continues… 4-25-14

The Wall Street Journal wrote this week that while the current U.S. economic recovery has been one of the most lackluster in modern times, it is also shaping up to be one of the most enduring. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. economy emerged from recession in June 2009-just over 58 months ago-meaning that economy is already exceeding the average duration for post-World War II recoveries. Continue reading

Update 4/18/14

Economic Data

Even with a holiday-shortened week, there were still a lot of notable market events.  Weekly jobless claim numbers were released yesterday and showed another solid improvement in the job market.  The 304,000 jobless claims were well under the consensus estimate of 312,000.  When the numbers were coming in “weak” during the harsh winter, we anticipated that nicer weather would accelerate the economy and hiring.  Yesterday’s numbers do seem to show this, as economists are attributing this lift to what they are now calling the “spring thaw”.  Continue reading

Update 4-11-14

The markets have sold off a bit this week.  However, we do not see the current short-term volatility in the market as any type of threat similar to the market collapse of 2008.  Corporate balance sheets, earnings projections, consumer debt service ratios, and the amount of overall leverage in the economy are all at the opposite end of the spectrum when compared to 2008.  We want to remind clients to keep their focus on the numbers and ignore the noise from media on T.V.  While nobody can predict the future we can study the economic and stock data and compare it versus other time periods where market corrections occurred.  We are watching the volatility closely but have not found any economic or earnings data that justifies a major correction.  Continue reading

Monthly Economic Data 4/4/14

On Tuesday, manufacturing data for March was released, rising 0.5, to 53.7.  Although this fell short of the expectation of 54.0, this number is encouraging, as it shows the US economy is expanding, albeit at a slower pace than expected.  The harsh winter likely impacted this number, so the April report will give us a better idea of the economy’s pace of expansion. Continue reading